IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jijerp/v19y2022i11p6864-d831272.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A New Compartment Model of COVID-19 Transmission: The Broken-Link Model

Author

Listed:
  • Yoichi Ikeda

    (Department of Physics, Faculty of Science, Kyushu University, Fukuoka 819-0395, Japan
    Center for Infectious Disease Education and Research, Osaka University, Osaka 565-0871, Japan)

  • Kenji Sasaki

    (Center for Infectious Disease Education and Research, Osaka University, Osaka 565-0871, Japan)

  • Takashi Nakano

    (Center for Infectious Disease Education and Research, Osaka University, Osaka 565-0871, Japan
    Research Center for Nuclear Physics, Osaka University, Osaka 567-0047, Japan)

Abstract

We propose a new compartment model of COVID-19 spread, the broken-link model, which includes the effect from unconnected infectious links of the transmission. The traditional SIR-type epidemic models are widely used to analyze the spread status, and the models show the exponential growth of the number of infected people. However, even in the early stage of the spread, it is proven by the actual data that the exponential growth did not occur all over the world. We presume this is caused by the suppression of secondary and higher-order transmissions of COVID-19. We find that the proposed broken-link model quantitatively describes the mechanism of this suppression, which leads to the shape of epicurves of confirmed cases are governed by the probability of unconnected infectious links, and the magnitudes of the cases are proportional to exp R 0 in each infectious surge generated by a virus of the basic reproduction number R 0 , and is consistent with the actual data.

Suggested Citation

  • Yoichi Ikeda & Kenji Sasaki & Takashi Nakano, 2022. "A New Compartment Model of COVID-19 Transmission: The Broken-Link Model," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(11), pages 1-10, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:19:y:2022:i:11:p:6864-:d:831272
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/19/11/6864/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/19/11/6864/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:19:y:2022:i:11:p:6864-:d:831272. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.