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Development and Validation of a Sub-National, Satellite-Based Land-Use Regression Model for Annual Nitrogen Dioxide Concentrations in North-Western China

Author

Listed:
  • Igor Popovic

    (Faculty of Medicine, School of Public Health, University of Queensland, Herston 4006, Australia
    UQ Spatial Epidemiology Laboratory, School of Veterinary Science, University of Queensland, Gatton 4343, Australia)

  • Ricardo J. Soares Magalhães

    (UQ Spatial Epidemiology Laboratory, School of Veterinary Science, University of Queensland, Gatton 4343, Australia
    Children’s Health and Environment Program, UQ Children’s Health Research Center, The University of Queensland, South Brisbane 4101, Australia)

  • Shukun Yang

    (Department of Radiology, The Second Affiliated Hospital of Ningxia Medical University, The First People’s Hospital in Yinchuan, Yinchuan 750004, China)

  • Yurong Yang

    (Department of Pathogenic Biology & Medical Immunology, School of Basic Medical Science, Ningxia Medical University, Yinchuan 750004, China)

  • Erjia Ge

    (Dalla Lana School of Public Health, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON M5S 1A1, Canada)

  • Boyi Yang

    (Guangdong Provincial Engineering Technology Research Center of Environmental Pollution and Health Risk Assessment, Department of Occupational and Environmental Health, School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510085, China)

  • Guanghui Dong

    (Guangzhou Key Laboratory of Environmental Pollution and Health Risk Assessment, Department of Preventive Medicine, School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510085, China)

  • Xiaolin Wei

    (Dalla Lana School of Public Health, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON M5S 1A1, Canada)

  • Guy B. Marks

    (South Western Sydney Clinical School, University of New South Wales, Liverpool 2170, Australia
    Woolcock Institute of Medical Research, Glebe 2037, Australia
    Centre for Air Pollution, Energy and Health Research, Glebe 2037, Australia)

  • Luke D. Knibbs

    (Centre for Air Pollution, Energy and Health Research, Glebe 2037, Australia
    Faculty of Medicine and Health, School of Public Health, The University of Sydney, Camperdown 2006, Australia)

Abstract

Existing national- or continental-scale models of nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ) exposure have a limited capacity to capture subnational spatial variability in sparsely-populated parts of the world where NO 2 sources may vary. To test and validate our approach, we developed a land-use regression (LUR) model for NO 2 for Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region (NHAR) and surrounding areas, a small rural province in north-western China. Using hourly NO 2 measurements from 105 continuous monitoring sites in 2019, a supervised, forward addition, linear regression approach was adopted to develop the model, assessing 270 potential predictor variables, including tropospheric NO 2 , optically measured by the Aura satellite. The final model was cross-validated (5-fold cross validation), and its historical performance (back to 2014) assessed using 41 independent monitoring sites not used for model development. The final model captured 63% of annual NO 2 in NHAR (RMSE: 6 ppb (21% of the mean of all monitoring sites)) and contiguous parts of Inner Mongolia, Gansu, and Shaanxi Provinces. Cross-validation and independent evaluation against historical data yielded adjusted R 2 values that were 1% and 10% lower than the model development values, respectively, with comparable RMSE. The findings suggest that a parsimonious, satellite-based LUR model is robust and can be used to capture spatial contrasts in annual NO 2 in the relatively sparsely-populated areas in NHAR and neighbouring provinces.

Suggested Citation

  • Igor Popovic & Ricardo J. Soares Magalhães & Shukun Yang & Yurong Yang & Erjia Ge & Boyi Yang & Guanghui Dong & Xiaolin Wei & Guy B. Marks & Luke D. Knibbs, 2021. "Development and Validation of a Sub-National, Satellite-Based Land-Use Regression Model for Annual Nitrogen Dioxide Concentrations in North-Western China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(24), pages 1-12, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:18:y:2021:i:24:p:12887-:d:696729
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