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Effectiveness of Social Measures against COVID-19 Outbreaks in Selected Japanese Regions Analyzed by System Dynamic Modeling

Author

Listed:
  • Makoto Niwa

    (Graduate School of Technology Management, Ritsumeikan University, Osaka 567-8570, Japan
    Discovery Research Laboratories, Nippon Shinyaku Co., Ltd., Kyoto 601-8550, Japan)

  • Yasushi Hara

    (TDB Center for Advanced Empirical Research on Enterprise and Economy, Faculty of Economics, Hitotsubashi University, Tokyo 186-8603, Japan)

  • Shintaro Sengoku

    (Life Style by Design Research Unit, Institute for Future Initiatives, the University of Tokyo, Tokyo 113-0033, Japan)

  • Kota Kodama

    (Graduate School of Technology Management, Ritsumeikan University, Osaka 567-8570, Japan
    Center for Research and Education on Drug Discovery, The Graduate School of Pharmaceutical Sciences in Hokkaido University, Sapporo 060-0812, Japan)

Abstract

In Japan’s response to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), virus testing was limited to symptomatic patients due to limited capacity, resulting in uncertainty regarding the spread of infection and the appropriateness of countermeasures. System dynamic modelling, comprised of stock flow and infection modelling, was used to describe regional population dynamics and estimate assumed region-specific transmission rates. The estimated regional transmission rates were then mapped against actual patient data throughout the course of the interventions. This modelling, together with simulation studies, demonstrated the effectiveness of inbound traveler quarantine and resident self-isolation policies and practices. A causal loop approach was taken to link societal factors to infection control measures. This causal loop modelling suggested that the only effective measure against COVID-19 transmission in the Japanese context was intervention in the early stages of the outbreak by national and regional governments, and no social self-strengthening dynamics were demonstrated. These findings may contribute to an understanding of how social resilience to future infectious disease threats can be developed.

Suggested Citation

  • Makoto Niwa & Yasushi Hara & Shintaro Sengoku & Kota Kodama, 2020. "Effectiveness of Social Measures against COVID-19 Outbreaks in Selected Japanese Regions Analyzed by System Dynamic Modeling," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(17), pages 1-12, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:17:y:2020:i:17:p:6238-:d:405043
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Yuxin Yan & Woo In Shin & Yoong Xin Pang & Yang Meng & Jianchen Lai & Chong You & Haitao Zhao & Edward Lester & Tao Wu & Cheng Heng Pang, 2020. "The First 75 Days of Novel Coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) Outbreak: Recent Advances, Prevention, and Treatment," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(7), pages 1-23, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Weiwei Zhang & Shiyong Liu & Nathaniel Osgood & Hongli Zhu & Ying Qian & Peng Jia, 2023. "Using simulation modelling and systems science to help contain COVID‐19: A systematic review," Systems Research and Behavioral Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(1), pages 207-234, January.
    2. Natsuko Tabata & Mai Tsukada & Kozue Kubo & Yuri Inoue & Reiko Miroku & Fumihiko Odashima & Koichiro Shiratori & Takashi Sekiya & Shintaro Sengoku & Hideaki Shiroyama & Hiromichi Kimura, 2022. "Living Lab for Citizens’ Wellness: A Case of Maintaining and Improving a Healthy Diet under the COVID-19 Pandemic," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(3), pages 1-17, January.

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