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Developing a Hierarchical Model for the Spatial Analysis of PM 10 Pollution Extremes in the Mexico City Metropolitan Area

Author

Listed:
  • Alejandro Ivan Aguirre-Salado

    (Department of Physics and Mathematics, Universidad Tecnológica de la Mixteca, 69000 Huajuapan de León, Oax., Mexico)

  • Humberto Vaquera-Huerta

    (Department of Statistics, Colegio de Postgraduados, Campus Montecillo, Texcoco, 56230 Montecillo, Mex., Mexico)

  • Carlos Arturo Aguirre-Salado

    (Faculty of Engineering, Universidad Autónoma de San Luis Potosí, 78280 San Luis Potosí, S.L.P., Mexico)

  • Silvia Reyes-Mora

    (Department of Physics and Mathematics, Universidad Tecnológica de la Mixteca, 69000 Huajuapan de León, Oax., Mexico)

  • Ana Delia Olvera-Cervantes

    (Department of Physics and Mathematics, Universidad Tecnológica de la Mixteca, 69000 Huajuapan de León, Oax., Mexico)

  • Guillermo Arturo Lancho-Romero

    (Department of Physics and Mathematics, Universidad Tecnológica de la Mixteca, 69000 Huajuapan de León, Oax., Mexico)

  • Carlos Soubervielle-Montalvo

    (Faculty of Engineering, Universidad Autónoma de San Luis Potosí, 78280 San Luis Potosí, S.L.P., Mexico)

Abstract

We implemented a spatial model for analysing PM 10 maxima across the Mexico City metropolitan area during the period 1995–2016. We assumed that these maxima follow a non-identical generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution and modeled the trend by introducing multivariate smoothing spline functions into the probability GEV distribution. A flexible, three-stage hierarchical Bayesian approach was developed to analyse the distribution of the PM 10 maxima in space and time. We evaluated the statistical model’s performance by using a simulation study. The results showed strong evidence of a positive correlation between the PM 10 maxima and the longitude and latitude. The relationship between time and the PM 10 maxima was negative, indicating a decreasing trend over time. Finally, a high risk of PM 10 maxima presenting levels above 1000 μ g/m 3 (return period: 25 yr) was observed in the northwestern region of the study area.

Suggested Citation

  • Alejandro Ivan Aguirre-Salado & Humberto Vaquera-Huerta & Carlos Arturo Aguirre-Salado & Silvia Reyes-Mora & Ana Delia Olvera-Cervantes & Guillermo Arturo Lancho-Romero & Carlos Soubervielle-Montalvo, 2017. "Developing a Hierarchical Model for the Spatial Analysis of PM 10 Pollution Extremes in the Mexico City Metropolitan Area," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 14(7), pages 1-15, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:14:y:2017:i:7:p:734-:d:103882
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Chiara Bocci & Enrica Caporali & Alessandra Petrucci, 2013. "Geoadditive modeling for extreme rainfall data," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 97(2), pages 181-193, April.
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