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Decreases in Smoking-Related Cancer Mortality Rates Are Associated with Birth Cohort Effects in Korean Men

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  • Yon Ho Jee

    (MRC Population Health Research Unit, Clinical Trial Service Unit and Epidemiological Studies Unit, Nuffield Department of Population Health, University of Oxford, Oxford OX3 7LF, UK)

  • Aesun Shin

    (Department of Preventive Medicine, Seoul National University College of Medicine, Seoul 03080, Korea
    Cancer Research Institute, Seoul National University, Seoul 03080, Korea)

  • Jong-Keun Lee

    (Radiation Epidemiology Team, Radiation Health Institute, Korea Hydro & Nuclear Power Co., Ltd., Seongnam 01450, Korea)

  • Chang-Mo Oh

    (Cancer Registration and Statistic Branch, National Cancer Control Institute, National Cancer Center, Goyang 10408, Korea)

Abstract

Background: This study aimed to examine trends in smoking-related cancer mortality rates and to investigate the effect birth cohort on smoking-related cancer mortality in Korean men. Methods: The number of smoking-related cancer deaths and corresponding population numbers were obtained from Statistics Korea for the period 1984–2013. Joinpoint regression analysis was used to detect changes in trends in age-standardized mortality rates. Birth-cohort specific mortality rates were illustrated by 5 year age groups. Results: The age-standardized mortality rates for oropharyngeal decreased from 2003 to 2013 (annual percent change (APC): −3.1 (95% CI, −4.6 to −1.6)) and lung cancers decreased from 2002 to 2013 (APC −2.4 (95% CI −2.7 to −2.2)). The mortality rates for esophageal declined from 1994 to 2002 (APC −2.5 (95% CI −4.1 to −0.8)) and from 2002 to 2013 (APC −5.2 (95% CI −5.7 to −4.7)) and laryngeal cancer declined from 1995 to 2013 (average annual percent change (AAPC): −3.3 (95% CI −4.7 to −1.8)). By the age group, the trends for the smoking-related cancer mortality except for oropharyngeal cancer have changed earlier to decrease in the younger age group. The birth-cohort specific mortality rates and age-period-cohort analysis consistently showed that all birth cohorts born after 1930 showed reduced mortality of smoking-related cancers. Conclusions: In Korean men, smoking-related cancer mortality rates have decreased. Our findings also indicate that current decreases in smoking-related cancer mortality rates have mainly been due to a decrease in the birth cohort effect, which suggest that decrease in smoking rates.

Suggested Citation

  • Yon Ho Jee & Aesun Shin & Jong-Keun Lee & Chang-Mo Oh, 2016. "Decreases in Smoking-Related Cancer Mortality Rates Are Associated with Birth Cohort Effects in Korean Men," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 13(12), pages 1-14, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:13:y:2016:i:12:p:1208-:d:84469
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Theodore R. Holford & Keita Ebisu & Lisa McKay & Cheongeun Oh & Tongzhang Zheng, 2012. "Chapter 12: Yale Lung Cancer Model," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 32(s1), pages 151-165, August.
    2. repec:cdl:ctcres:qt5t06910t is not listed on IDEAS
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