Assessing the Impact of Groundwater Extraction and Climate Change on a Protected Playa-Lake System in the Southern Iberian Peninsula: La Ratosa Natural Reserve

We modeled the water level variations in a protected playa-lake system (La Ratosa Natural Reserve, S Spain) comprising two adjacent playa-lakes: La Ratosa and Herriza de los Ladrones. For this purpose, daily water balances were applied to reconstruct the water level. Model results were validated using actual water level monitoring over the past 20 years. We surveyed post-Pliocene geological structures in the endorheic watershed to investigate lake nucleation and to improve the hydrogeological model. Additionally, we investigated the groundwater level evolution in nearby aquifers, which have been profusely affected by groundwater exploitation for domestic and agricultural use. Then, the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 climate change scenarios were applied to forecast the future of this lake system. We found that the playa-lake hydroperiod will shorten, causing the system to shift from seasonal to ephemeral, which appears to be a general trend in this area. However, the impact on the La Ratosa-Herriza de los Ladrones system would be likely more severe due to local stressors, such as groundwater withdrawal for urban demand and agriculture, driving the system to complete desiccation for extended periods. These results highlight the sensitivity of these protected ecosystems to changes in the watershed’s water balance and underscore the urgent need to preserve watersheds from any form of water use, other than ecological purposes. This approach aims to support informed decision-making to mitigate adverse impacts on these fragile ecosystems, ensuring their ecological integrity in the context of climate change and increasing water demand for various uses.