Relative Consumption as Fitness: A Replicator–Mutator Model of Reference-Dependent Demand and Status Competition

Background : Standard consumer theory treats preferences as fixed primitives and demand as the solution to an individual optimisation problem; we instead model consumption styles as heritable strategies whose prevalence is shaped by selection and experimentation, and ask when status competition produces an over-consumption trap. Methods : We embed a reference-dependent payoff—private utility concave in own consumption, a positional benefit proportional to consumption relative to the social mean, a financial-fragility cost, and a loss-averse relative-deprivation term—into replicator–mutator dynamics over three strategies (frugal, balanced, conspicuous). Results : Status concern induces strategic complementarity, so that a rising consumption norm penalises moderate consumers and makes imitation self-reinforcing. For intermediate status weight, the system is bistable: an efficient balanced equilibrium and a Pareto-inferior conspicuous trap are separated by a tipping threshold, and the width of the bistable window equals the deprivation weight, producing hysteresis in the consumption norm. The trap persists even though the positional benefit nets to zero in any monomorphic state. Mutation—behavioural experimentation—shrinks the bistable window and can dissolve the lock-in. Conclusions : Reference-dependent demand is better captured by evolutionary dynamics than by static equilibrium, and positional externalities can lock a population into self-defeating over-consumption that interventions on the deprivation or fragility channel may unlock.