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Decisions in the Basketball Endgame: A Downside of the Three-Point Revolution

Author

Listed:
  • Luka Secilmis

    (Computer Science, ETH Zurich, 8092 Zurich, Switzerland)

  • Teo Secilmis

    (Life Sciences Engineering, EPFL, 1015 Lausanne, Switzerland)

  • Simon Jantschgi

    (Zurich Center for Market Design and SUZ, University of Zurich, 8050 Zurich, Switzerland)

  • Heinrich H. Nax

    (Zurich Center for Market Design and SUZ, University of Zurich, 8050 Zurich, Switzerland
    Behavioral Game Theory, ETH Zurich, 8092 Zurich, Switzerland)

Abstract

Von Neumann’s minimax theorem defines optimal strategic unpredictability in zero-sum games. Empirical evidence from professional sports has been interpreted as positive behavioral evidence for minimax. In this article, we analyze the strategic optimality of offensive plays in the basketball endgame when a team has a final possession and trails by no more than a single basket. This final moment of the game most closely approximates the simultaneous-move conditions of a game where minimax theory applies. Using comprehensive NBA data from 2010 to 2025, we test for equality of success rates across shooter types (star vs. non-stars) and shot selection (two-point vs. three-point). Our analysis reveals systematic violations of minimax play that have intensified with basketball’s shift to three-pointers and higher expected points. In the final decisive moment of the game, we find that teams systematically overuse three-point shots even though the two-point attempt yields higher field goal percentages. In addition, teams over-rely on star players for the final shot; non-star two-point shots have been the top-performing endgame option in 2022–2025.

Suggested Citation

  • Luka Secilmis & Teo Secilmis & Simon Jantschgi & Heinrich H. Nax, 2025. "Decisions in the Basketball Endgame: A Downside of the Three-Point Revolution," Games, MDPI, vol. 16(6), pages 1-13, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jgames:v:16:y:2025:i:6:p:64-:d:1813115
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