Assessing Hierarchical Temporal Memory Against an LSTM Baseline for Short-Term Smart-Meter Load Forecasting

Short-term load forecasting is a key capability for smart-grid operation, but real smart-meter streams are affected by missing values, communication noise, and non-stationary consumption patterns. This paper studies forecasting using raw smart-meter data collected from domestic consumers in a medium-sized city in southern Spain. In particular, we assess Hierarchical Temporal Memory (HTM), a biologically inspired online sequence learner, against a family of Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM)-based recurrent baselines. HTM offers continual adaptation and avoids a separate training phase, whereas LSTM relies on offline supervised training and may require retraining or fine-tuning under distribution shift. For five-step-ahead forecasting, HTM achieved a test RMSE of 251 kWh (about 15% of average consumption). After hyperparameter optimization, the best tested LSTM configuration achieved a test RMSE of approximately 250 kWh under clean conditions, indicating nearly identical point accuracy between the two approaches. Under synthetic Gaussian-noise injection, however, HTM remained comparatively stable, whereas the optimized LSTM configuration degraded markedly under the tested perturbation protocol. In addition, HTM exhibited a lower runtime in the tested CPU-based implementation. These findings suggest that HTM is a viable online alternative for aggregated smart-meter forecasting, offering competitive accuracy together with a favorable operational profile under the specific evaluation setup considered here.