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Modelling the RES Balanced Integration in Forecasting the Power System’s Long-Term Development

Author

Listed:
  • Tetiana Nechaieva

    (Department of Forecasting the Electric Power Complex Development, General Energy Institute of National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, 03150 Kyiv, Ukraine)

  • Volodymyr Derii

    (Department of Forecasting the Electric Power Complex Development, General Energy Institute of National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, 03150 Kyiv, Ukraine)

  • Artur Zaporozhets

    (Department of Forecasting the Electric Power Complex Development, General Energy Institute of National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, 03150 Kyiv, Ukraine
    International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, 2361 Laxenburg, Austria
    Green Technology Research Center, Yuan Ze University, Taoyuan 320, Taiwan)

  • Viktor Denysov

    (Department of Forecasting the Electric Power Complex Development, General Energy Institute of National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, 03150 Kyiv, Ukraine)

Abstract

The growing integration of variable renewable energy sources (VRES) challenges power system flexibility and may cause curtailment due to excess capacity, grid constraints, or operational and market factors. Power-to-Heat (PtH) technology can mitigate these issues by coupling electricity and district heating sectors, providing additional flexibility and supporting decarbonisation. This study develops a long-term generation capacity expansion model that integrates PtH and district heating system (DHS) operation to achieve balanced VRES penetration. The model includes DHS heat demand balances and links electricity and heat via thermal power plants, combined heat and power (CHP) plants, and PtH units. The methodology is applied to Ukraine’s Integrated Power System and district heating demand through 2040, employing typical daily load profiles discretised into six four-hour segments. Results demonstrate the feasibility of deploying PtH electric boilers during the non-heating season, when high RES and base load nuclear generation create surplus electricity. These boilers convert excess wind and solar power into thermal energy for district heating, displacing natural gas-fired technologies and simultaneously decarbonising electricity and heat supply.

Suggested Citation

  • Tetiana Nechaieva & Volodymyr Derii & Artur Zaporozhets & Viktor Denysov, 2026. "Modelling the RES Balanced Integration in Forecasting the Power System’s Long-Term Development," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 8(4), pages 1-18, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jforec:v:8:y:2026:i:4:p:64-:d:2000785
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