Life-Cycle Analysis and Decision Model for Utilization of Distribution Transformers

This paper presents a comprehensive life-cycle analysis of distribution transformers, based on realized measurements of the increased power losses as a result of their long-term service under real-world conditions. The study is based on aggregated measured data from extensive fleets of oil-immersed distribution transformers characterized by diverse designs, manufacturing vintages, and service lives. The evolution of no-load losses and short-circuit losses is analyzed as a function of operational duration, structural characteristics, and the specific technologies employed for windings and magnetic core construction. Statistical models describing the variation in these losses are presented, highlighting the limitations of the static assumptions commonly utilized in power distribution network planning. On this basis, an approximation of the time evolution of the transformer’s total power and energy losses is proposed as appropriate for implementation in a life-cycle analysis model. Furthermore, the impacts of thermal loading and abnormal operating conditions—such as unbalanced loads, frequent short circuits, and repeated overheating of the transformer oil—are analyzed as drivers of accelerated transformer aging. These effects are integrated into a unified life-cycle framework, enabling the quantitative assessment of loss variations and their associated operational expenditures (OPEX). A numerical example is provided to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of “repair vs. replacement” scenarios, utilizing a discounted cash flow analysis that incorporates a carbon component. The findings establish a methodological foundation for a broader assessment of technical condition and energy performance, identifying the optimal intervention point for repair or replacement to support decision-making for Distribution System Operators (DSOs) amidst increasing requirements for efficiency and decarbonization.