Research on Factors Affecting the Intelligent Upgrade of Photovoltaic Projects in China, Based on Grounded Theory and Gray-DEMATEL

Under China’s carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals, its photovoltaic (PV) sector is transitioning from scale expansion to quality-oriented growth, where intelligent upgrading is essential to improve efficiency, safety, and O&M digitalization. However, its upgrade process in China is severely hampered by a wide range of complex influencing elements. The purpose of this study is to pinpoint and examine the main obstacles to the PV upgrading process as well as clarify their cause–effect relationships to support targeted interventions. Using a mixed-methods approach, we first analyzed interview data from thirty stakeholders using grounded theory to derive barrier categories and factors. The cause-and-effect linkages among these factors were then quantified using the gray-DEMATEL approach. The findings show that funding cost constraints and the lack of incentive mechanisms are the primary and secondary causal factors, respectively, while insufficient R&D capabilities are the most significant resultant factor. The lack of cooperation mechanisms and funding cost constraints were identified as the most comprehensive influencing factors. These findings provide a systematic decision-making framework for policymakers and industry stakeholders to formulate targeted strategies for accelerating PV intelligent upgrading in China.