Deep Learning-Based Evaluation of Offshore Wind Energy Resources in Southeastern China for the Future

The evaluation of offshore wind energy resources is important to the construction of offshore wind power facilities. In this paper, using four models from CMIP6 and the ERA5 reanalysis dataset, a deep learning model termed SwinWind was developed and proposed to evaluate future offshore wind energy resources in Southeastern China for the periods 2020–2050 and 2070–2100. The feature extraction capability of the Swin Transformer was utilized to construct a bias correction and downscaling framework. This approach achieves performance comparable to existing high-cost models while significantly reducing computational costs and complexity. The SwinWind model corrected most of the biases and effectively learned spatial relationships, successfully performing the downscaling task. Based on future wind speed projections derived from the SwinWind model, this study presents a comprehensive evaluation of offshore wind resources, examining five critical dimensions: resource abundance, efficiency, stability, the impact of extreme winds, and economic feasibility. It is projected that offshore wind resources around Shanghai, Jiangsu and Zhejiang will experience a decline in the 21st century, while offshore wind resources around the Guangdong, Fujian and the Beibu Gulf show an increasing trend. The evaluation index shows that the coastal areas of Guangdong and the southern coastline of Taiwan are the most suitable locations for wind power exploitation. The Taiwan Strait, which has the highest wind energy density, is not the best spot due to its extreme wind speed and unstable wind resources. This study provides an important reference for the location of wind farms with practical application value.