Investment Opportunities for Individual Energy Supply Systems: A UK Household Study

The current evolution of the energy context and progress in sustainable energy technologies are enabling the development of new energy supply systems for the residential sector. However, the techno-economic assessment of such energy systems is not straightforward and depends, among others, on the building type, its thermal insulation rate, and user patterns, as well as on the climatic conditions or energy and technology prices. This study therefore aims to develop an investment model for a typical UK household energy system that is applied to a diversity of scenarios to highlight the sensibility of the output results over stochastic input data such as electricity and heat demands, ambient temperature, and global solar irradiation. This dwelling diversity dataset is generated using a thermal–electrical demand model that uses stochastic techniques to model uncertainty. This contribution concludes with a discussion on how end-users can effectively take part in the energy transition while minimizing their energy bill and potentially generate long-term revenues. The main results show stable economic performance, with capital expenditure (CAPEX) ranging from GBP 15,400 to GBP 17,000 and NPV from GBP 21,000 to GBP 26,000 over 2000 individual scenarios. This study also confirms the leveraging effect of policy instruments, such as subsidies, in shifting the optimal system design towards higher shares of renewable and storage technologies, further reducing the reliance on fossil fuels and the impact on distribution systems.