Simulation-Based Framework for Backflashover Rate Estimation in High-Voltage Transmission Lines Integrating Monte-Carlo, ATP-EMTP, and Leader Progression Model

Lightning-induced backflashovers pose significant risks to high-voltage transmission systems, particularly in high lightning activity regions. Conventional backflashover rate (BFR) estimation methods rely on simplified empirical formulas that lack accuracy in complex scenarios. This paper presents a comprehensive simulation framework integrating (i) a Simulation-Based Leader Progression Model (SB-LPM) implemented in COMSOL Multiphysics–MATLAB to evaluate lightning attachment through detailed electrostatic field analysis and streamer-leader dynamics, (ii) ATP-EMTP electromagnetic transient simulations incorporating multi-component Heidler function current waveforms, calibrated to regional lightning measurements, and (iii) a Monte Carlo analysis for statistical assessment of backflashover susceptibility. Applied to a representative 138 kV transmission line in Minas Gerais, Brazil, the framework shows that BFR results are highly sensitive to tower-footing impedance and attachment model selection. The SB-LPM yields systematically different predictions compared to traditional electrogeometric models, yielding approximately 10% lower BFR estimates at 20 Ω grounding impedance relative to the widely used Eriksson model. The framework enables comprehensive lightning performance assessment by incorporating geometry-sensitive attachment modeling, realistic current waveform synthesis, and detailed system transient response, providing valuable insights for transmission line insulation coordination studies.