Discourse vs. Decarbonisation: Tracking the Alignment Between EU Climate Rhetoric and National Energy Patterns

This study examines the alignment between the European Union’s climate policy rhetoric and the actual fossil fuel consumption behaviours of its Member States. By combining long-term and short-term time-series data with machine learning classification techniques, the analysis captures dynamic national energy trends and decarbonisation signals. Key innovations include the use of slope acceleration metrics and the identification of label reversals to detect volatility, acceleration, or stagnation in transition trajectories. The results show that, while some countries such as France and Denmark demonstrate consistent structural progress, others show deceleration or reversal, particularly in the use of gas and liquid fuels. This indicates that the relationship between EU-level policy ambition and national implementation is asymmetric and conditionally aligned. This study concludes that ongoing empirical monitoring and targeted diagnostics are essential to prevent conflating symbolic commitments with material change, and provides practical insights for improving climate policy accountability and adaptability across the EU.