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Analysis of Real and Simulated Energy Produced by a Photovoltaic Installations Located in Poland

Author

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  • Ewa Hołota

    (Faculty of Environmental Engineering and Energy, Lublin University of Technology, Nadbystrzycka 40B, 20-618 Lublin, Poland)

  • Anna Życzyńska

    (Faculty of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Lublin University of Technology, Nadbystrzycka 40, 20-618 Lublin, Poland)

  • Grzegorz Dyś

    (Energy Engineering Studio “ERG” Sp. C., Głęboka 10 Lok. 35, 20-612 Lublin, Poland)

Abstract

In recent years, the amount of electricity produced by photovoltaic systems in Poland has increased significantly. This paper presents an evaluation of commercial software (PVGIS 5.3, ENERAD, and PVGIS 24) used for simulating energy produced by four photovoltaic installations. The results of the simulation were compared with the real energy production. The installations differ in terms of panel orientation (S, SE, SE-NW), tilt angle (12°, 25°, 37°) and location (roof- or ground-mounted). The average annual electricity production per 1 kW of module power for each installation was as follows: PV1—1104 kWh·kW −1 , PV2—1169 kWh·kW −1 , PV3—927 kWh·kW −1 , and PV4—831 kWh·kW −1 . The highest values were recorded for ground-mounted installations facing south. Simulations carried out using computer programs show differences between simulated and real electricity production values of 35–41% for the ENERAD software, 3–13% for the PVGIS 5.3 software, and 3–32% for the PVGIS 24 software. The most accurate forecasts were obtained for the PV2 system in the PVGIS 24 software (MPE 3%, RMSE 12%), and the most unfavorable for the same installation in the ENERAD software (MPE 41%, RMSE 48%).

Suggested Citation

  • Ewa Hołota & Anna Życzyńska & Grzegorz Dyś, 2025. "Analysis of Real and Simulated Energy Produced by a Photovoltaic Installations Located in Poland," Energies, MDPI, vol. 18(19), pages 1-16, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:18:y:2025:i:19:p:5279-:d:1765281
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