Optimization of Low-Carbon Operation and Capacity Expansion of Integrated Energy Systems in Synergy with Incremental Distribution Network for Industrial Parks

Against the backdrop of an intensifying global climate change and energy crisis, energy system decarbonization constitutes a primary sector for carbon mitigation. Integrated Energy Systems (IES) of district heating systems (DHS), a critical component of district energy networks (DEN), enable energy cascade utilization and enhance renewable energy integration efficiency when coupled with incremental distribution networks (IDN). However, retrofitting coupled systems necessitates significant capital investment and sustained operational expenditures. To evaluate the economic and environmental benefits of system retrofitting and assess cross-sector coordinated optimization potential, this study develops a multi-objective optimization framework for IES transition planning of DHS. Using an operational DHS energy station as a case study, we establish multi-scenario retrofitting strategies and operational protocols with comprehensive feasibility assessments, incorporating sensitivity analysis of cross-sector optimization potential while evaluating how varying electricity-to-heat load ratios affect optimization performance. Results demonstrate that intelligent operation optimization is essential for coordinating multi-equipment operations and maximizing energy conservation. Significant long-term economic and carbon mitigation potential remains untapped in ground source heat pumps and combined cooling, heating, and power (CCHP) systems. Coordinated optimization with campus incremental distribution networks further enhances energy cascade utilization in urban energy systems.