The Viability of Green Hydrogen for Electric Power Generation: Evaluating Current Practicability and Future Demand

This study investigates the feasibility of green hydrogen as an alternative to natural gas for power generation. In doing so, it contributes to the broader discourse surrounding hydrogen’s potential role in the transition of the energy sector. Our case study is of Ontario, Canada, where natural gas serves as the sole remaining carbon-emitting energy source for the generation of electricity. Through this, we present a practical reference and methodology that energy planners, policymakers, and researchers can use to analyze fuel consumption patterns and their costs. Our research involves estimating the volume of hydrogen required to support the conversion of natural gas-powered turbines. At present, electrical power in Ontario generated by natural gas may reach 39 TWh annually by 2035. Our findings suggest that the cost of hydrogen to generate that volume of electricity will range between USD 1.8 billion and USD 23.2 billion, contingent upon turbine efficiency and fluctuations in hydrogen prices. Moreover, if hydrogen prices remain elevated (up to USD 8/kg), the annual premium for hydrogen-generated electricity compared to natural gas could reach USD 20.604 billion, a significant deterrence for energy planners in Ontario from adopting hydrogen at scale. Thus, the added costs of hydrogen, along with challenges related to infrastructure requirements, safety, and technological considerations, render a potential transition to hydrogen, and to green hydrogen specifically, a complex undertaking. Ultimately, insights derived here enhance understanding of hydrogen’s potential within the context of power generation and may be applicable to other regions considering similar transitions toward hydrogen-based energy systems.