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Forecasting the Number of Electric Vehicles in Turkey Towards 2030: SARIMA Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Mahmut Sami Saraç

    (Department of Intelligent Transportation Systems, Institute of Science, Istanbul University, Istanbul 34134, Turkey)

  • Mehmet Ali Ertürk

    (Computer Engineering Department, Istanbul University, Istanbul 34134, Turkey)

Abstract

This study endeavors to project the trajectory of electric and hybrid vehicle adoption through 2030, operating under the premise that specific hybrid models can harness electricity from charging stations akin to fully electric counterparts. Employing the seasonal ARIMA (SARIMA) time series model, we preprocess the current counts of electric and hybrid passenger vehicles. Additionally, we use this model to forecast future counts. Our preprocessing findings suggest that Turkey currently experiences a deficit of approximately 26% in electric and hybrid vehicles, considering conventional market dynamics from 2018 to 2023. Furthermore, assuming the observed seasonal fluctuations in passenger vehicle sales will similarly influence electric and hybrid vehicle demand, a secondary preprocessing is conducted on the dataset. Applying this methodology, our projections indicate Turkey will approach a total of 2.6 million electric and hybrid vehicles by the close of 2029, offering insights for policymakers and private stakeholders in charting the course of charging infrastructure development.

Suggested Citation

  • Mahmut Sami Saraç & Mehmet Ali Ertürk, 2025. "Forecasting the Number of Electric Vehicles in Turkey Towards 2030: SARIMA Approach," Energies, MDPI, vol. 18(18), pages 1-19, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:18:y:2025:i:18:p:4808-:d:1746046
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hafize Nurgul Durmus Senyapar & Murat Akil & Emrah Dokur, 2023. "Adoption of Electric Vehicles: Purchase Intentions and Consumer Behaviors Research in Turkey," SAGE Open, , vol. 13(2), pages 21582440231, June.
    2. Gould, Phillip G. & Koehler, Anne B. & Ord, J. Keith & Snyder, Ralph D. & Hyndman, Rob J. & Vahid-Araghi, Farshid, 2008. "Forecasting time series with multiple seasonal patterns," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 191(1), pages 207-222, November.
    3. Xin, Liguo & Ahmad, Manzoor & Khattak, Shoukat Iqbal, 2023. "Impact of innovation in hybrid electric vehicles-related technologies on carbon dioxide emissions in the 15 most innovative countries," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).
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