IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jeners/v18y2025i13p3497-d1693302.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Optimisation Study of Investment Decision-Making in Distribution Networks of New Power Systems—Based on a Three-Level Decision-Making Model

Author

Listed:
  • Wanru Zhao

    (State Grid Shanghai Electric Power Company, Shanghai 200000, China)

  • Ziteng Liu

    (State Grid Shanghai Electric Power Company, Shanghai 200000, China)

  • Rui Zhang

    (State Grid Shanghai Electric Power Company, Shanghai 200000, China)

  • Mai Lu

    (Shanghai Lingli Information Technology Co., Ltd., Shanghai 200000, China)

  • Wenhui Zhao

    (School of Economics and Management, Shanghai University of Electric Power, Shanghai 200000, China)

Abstract

This paper addresses the scientific needs for investment decision-making in distribution networks against the backdrop of new power systems, constructing a three-tier decision-making system that includes investment scale decision-making, investment structure allocation, and investment project prioritization. Initially, it systematically analyzes the new requirements imposed by the new power systems on distribution networks and establishes an investment index system encompassing four dimensions: “capacity, self-healing, interaction, and efficiency”. Next, the Pearson correlation coefficient is employed to screen key influencing factors, and in conjunction with the grey MG(1,1) model and the support vector machine algorithm, precise forecasting of the investment scale is achieved. Furthermore, distribution network projects are categorized into ten classes, and an investment direction decision-making model is constructed to determine the investment scale for each attribute. Then, for the shortcomings of the traditional project comparison method, the investment project decision-making model is established with the attribute investment amount as the constraint and the maximisation of project benefits under the attribute as the goal. Finally, the effectiveness of the decision-making system is verified by taking the Lishui distribution network as a case study. The results show that the system keeps the investment scale prediction error within 5.9%, the city’s total investment deviation within 0.3%, and the projects are synergistically optimized to provide quantitative support for distribution network investment decision-making in the context of a new type of electric power system, and to achieve precise regulation.

Suggested Citation

  • Wanru Zhao & Ziteng Liu & Rui Zhang & Mai Lu & Wenhui Zhao, 2025. "Optimisation Study of Investment Decision-Making in Distribution Networks of New Power Systems—Based on a Three-Level Decision-Making Model," Energies, MDPI, vol. 18(13), pages 1-31, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:18:y:2025:i:13:p:3497-:d:1693302
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/18/13/3497/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/18/13/3497/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Grimm, Veronika & Grübel, Julia & Rückel, Bastian & Sölch, Christian & Zöttl, Gregor, 2020. "Storage investment and network expansion in distribution networks: The impact of regulatory frameworks," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 262(C).
    2. Saaty, Thomas L., 1990. "How to make a decision: The analytic hierarchy process," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 9-26, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Flavio Martins & Maria Fatima Almeida & Rodrigo Calili & Agatha Oliveira, 2020. "Design Thinking Applied to Smart Home Projects: A User-Centric and Sustainable Perspective," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(23), pages 1-27, December.
    2. Pathiraja, Erandathie & Griffith, Garry & Farquharson, Robert & Faggia, Rob, 2019. "The Cost of Climate Change to Agricultural Industries: Coconuts in Sri Lanka," International Journal on Food System Dynamics, International Center for Management, Communication, and Research, vol. 10(05), December.
    3. V. Srinivasan & G. Shainesh & Anand K. Sharma, 2015. "An approach to prioritize customer-based, cost-effective service enhancements," The Service Industries Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(14), pages 747-762, October.
    4. Patricija Bajec & Danijela Tuljak-Suban, 2019. "An Integrated Analytic Hierarchy Process—Slack Based Measure-Data Envelopment Analysis Model for Evaluating the Efficiency of Logistics Service Providers Considering Undesirable Performance Criteria," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(8), pages 1-18, April.
    5. Xinxin Liu & Xiaosheng Wang & Haiying Guo & Xiaojie An, 2021. "Benefit Allocation in Shared Water-Saving Management Contract Projects Based on Modified Expected Shapley Value," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(1), pages 39-62, January.
    6. Sushil, 2019. "Efficient interpretive ranking process incorporating implicit and transitive dominance relationships," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 283(1), pages 1489-1516, December.
    7. Moumita Palchaudhuri & Sujata Biswas, 2016. "Application of AHP with GIS in drought risk assessment for Puruliya district, India," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 84(3), pages 1905-1920, December.
    8. Tommaso Ortalli & Andrea Di Martino & Michela Longo & Dario Zaninelli, 2024. "Make-or-Buy Policy Decision in Maintenance Planning for Mobility: A Multi-Criteria Approach," Logistics, MDPI, vol. 8(2), pages 1-18, May.
    9. D. K. Choudhury, 2019. "Standard Critical Path and Selection of Most Economic and Quality Contractors for Construction of Thermal Power Plant: A Case Study in NTPC," Metamorphosis: A Journal of Management Research, , vol. 18(2), pages 103-118, December.
    10. Choudhary, Devendra & Shankar, Ravi, 2012. "An STEEP-fuzzy AHP-TOPSIS framework for evaluation and selection of thermal power plant location: A case study from India," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 510-521.
    11. Madjid Tavana & Mariya Sodenkamp & Leena Suhl, 2010. "A soft multi-criteria decision analysis model with application to the European Union enlargement," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 181(1), pages 393-421, December.
    12. Levary, Reuven R. & Wan, Ke, 1999. "An analytic hierarchy process based simulation model for entry mode decision regarding foreign direct investment," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 27(6), pages 661-677, December.
    13. Lilian. O. Iheukwumere-Esotu & Akilu Yunusa-Kaltungo, 2021. "Knowledge Criticality Assessment and Codification Framework for Major Maintenance Activities: A Case Study of Cement Rotary Kiln Plant," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(9), pages 1-21, April.
    14. Alpana Agarwal & Divina Raghav, 2023. "Analysing Determinants of Employee Performance Based on Reverse Mentoring and Employer Branding Using Analytic Hierarchical Process," Management and Labour Studies, XLRI Jamshedpur, School of Business Management & Human Resources, vol. 48(3), pages 343-358, August.
    15. María Pilar de la Cruz López & Juan José Cartelle Barros & Alfredo del Caño Gochi & Manuel Lara Coira, 2021. "New Approach for Managing Sustainability in Projects," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(13), pages 1-27, June.
    16. Sadiq Ullah & Mudassar Iqbal & Muhammad Waseem & Adnan Abbas & Muhammad Masood & Ghulam Nabi & Muhammad Atiq Ur Rehman Tariq & Muhammad Sadam, 2024. "Potential Sites for Rainwater Harvesting Focusing on the Sustainable Development Goals Using Remote Sensing and Geographical Information System," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(21), pages 1-23, October.
    17. Sward, Jeffrey A. & Nilson, Roberta S. & Katkar, Venktesh V. & Stedman, Richard C. & Kay, David L. & Ifft, Jennifer E. & Zhang, K. Max, 2021. "Integrating social considerations in multicriteria decision analysis for utility-scale solar photovoltaic siting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 288(C).
    18. Mou, W.M. & Wong, W.-K. & McAleer, M.J., 2018. "Financial Credit Risk and Core Enterprise Supply Chains," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI2018-27, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    19. Marco Rogna, 2019. "A First-Phase Screening Device for Site Selection of Large-Scale Solar Plants with an Application to Italy," BEMPS - Bozen Economics & Management Paper Series BEMPS57, Faculty of Economics and Management at the Free University of Bozen.
    20. Villacreses, Geovanna & Gaona, Gabriel & Martínez-Gómez, Javier & Jijón, Diego Juan, 2017. "Wind farms suitability location using geographical information system (GIS), based on multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) methods: The case of continental Ecuador," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 275-286.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:18:y:2025:i:13:p:3497-:d:1693302. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.