A LightGBM-Based Power Grid Frequency Prediction Method with Dynamic Significance–Correlation Feature Weighting

Accurate grid frequency prediction is essential for maintaining the stability and reliability of power systems. However, the complex dynamic characteristics of grid frequency and the nonlinear correlations among massive time series data make it challenging for traditional time series prediction methods to balance efficiency and accuracy. In this paper, we propose a Dynamic Significance–Correlation Weighting (D-SCW) method, which generates dynamic weight coefficients that evolve over time. This is achieved by constructing a joint screening mechanism of feature time series correlation analysis and statistical significance test, combined with the LightGBM gradient-boosting decision tree (GBDT) framework; accordingly, high-precision prediction of grid frequency time series data is realized. To verify the effectiveness of the D-SCW method, this study conducts comparative experiments on two actual grid operation datasets (including typical scenarios with wind/photovoltaic (PV) installations, accounting for 5–35% of the grid); additionally, the Spearman’s rank correlation coefficient method, mutual information (MI), Lasso regression, and the feature screening method of recursive feature elimination (RFE) are selected as the baseline control; root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) are adopted as assessment indicators. The results show that the D-SCW-LightGBM framework reduces the root mean squared error (RMSE) by 5.2% to 10.4% and shortens the dynamic response delay by 52% compared with the benchmark method in high renewable penetration scenarios, confirming its effectiveness in both prediction accuracy and computational efficiency.