Estimation of Remaining Insulation Lifetime of Aged XLPE Cables with Step-Stress Method Based on Physical-Driven Model

The remaining lifetime of the cable insulation is an important but hard topic for the industry and research groups as there are more and more cables nearing their designed life in China. However, it is hard to accurately and efficiently obtain the ageing characteristic parameters of cross-linked polyethylene (XLPE) cable insulation. This study systematically analyzes the evolution of the remaining insulation lifetime of XLPE cables under different ageing states using the step-stress method combined with the inverse power model (IPM) and a physical-driven model (Crine model). By comparing un-aged and accelerated-aged specimens, the step-stress breakdown tests were conducted to obtain the Weibull distribution characteristics of breakdown voltage and breakdown time. Experimental results demonstrate that the characteristic breakdown field strength and remaining lifetime of the specimens decrease significantly with prolonged ageing. The ageing parameter of the IPM was calculated. It is found that the ageing parameter of IPM increases with the ageing time. However, it can hardly link to the other properties or physic parameters of the material. The activation energy and electron acceleration distance of the Crine model were also calculated. It is found that ageing activation energy stays almost the same in samples with different ageing time, showing that it is a material intrinsic parameter that will not change with the ageing; the electron acceleration distance increases with the ageing time, it makes sense that the ageing process may break the molecule chain of XLPE and increase the size of the free volume. It shows that the Crine model can better fit the physic process of ageing in theory and mathematic, and the acceleration distance of the Crine model is a physical driven parameter that can greatly reflect the ageing degree of the cable insulation and be used as an indicator of the ageing states.