Do Virtual Water Exports to the EU Drive Morocco’s Economic Growth? Evidence from an ARDL Approach

The concept of virtual water is currently one of the most important issues in water resource management, especially in a context marked by structural water scarcity. Beyond the analysis of virtual water flows, which has been widely studied in the literature, this study aims to better understand the relationship between virtual water exports and economic growth. This paper analyzes the dynamic relationship between Morocco’s economic growth and agricultural virtual water exports to the European Union over the period of 1986–2023. An ARDL model was used based on annual data to test cointegration and estimate short- and long-term effects, controlling for gross fixed capital formation and agricultural value added. The bounds test confirms the existence of a stable long-term relationship between the variables. The results suggest that export specialization may be associated with foreign earnings and agricultural activity while also coinciding with greater pressure on resources and potential adaptation costs, especially for blue water resources. However, estimates indicate that in the long term, investment is positively and significantly associated with growth, while virtual water exports are associated with a negative effect on GDP, suggesting that export gains may be offset by increasing water constraints and sectoral trade-offs, and that agricultural value added mainly influences short-term dynamics. The results highlight the importance of integrating water footprint and virtual water trade concepts, as well as climate constraints, into agricultural and trade strategy planning while strengthening policies on water efficiency, innovation, and governance.