Circular Economy and Resource Efficiency in the Serbian Agri-Food Sector: Evidence from Dynamic Panel Analysis

The transition toward sustainable, resource-efficient production has become a key challenge for agri-food systems, particularly in emerging economies, where profitability and environmental goals must be balanced. This study aimed to examine the relationship between financial structure, macroeconomic conditions, and circular economy (CE) indicators in determining the profitability of Serbian agri-food enterprises. Using panel data for 625 firms from 2014 to 2021, a two-step system GMM model was applied to control for endogeneity and firm-specific effects. The results indicate that in agriculture, moderate leverage enhances profitability, while excessive debt reduces it. Recycling and efficiency-oriented circular practices have a positive and significant effect on financial performance, suggesting that resource-efficient management supports long-term profitability. In the food industry, profitability shows strong persistence but remains mainly driven by internal and economic factors, with CE indicators exerting weaker short-term effects. Robustness tests confirm the validity and stability of the estimates. Overall, the findings highlight that integrating circular economy principles into business strategies can contribute to both financial sustainability and more efficient resource use in the agri-food sector.