Digital Adoption and Digital Maturity in Ecuadorian SMEs: A Cross-Sectional Econometric Analysis of the 2021 National Digital Skills Survey

The post-pandemic acceleration of digital tools has reshaped how small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in Latin America compete, yet the resulting maturity gains remain poorly understood in individual emerging-market economies. Ecuador exemplifies this gap: SMEs account for over ninety per cent of the formal business register but appear in few econometric studies, most based on convenience samples. This study asks how strongly digital adoption is associated with the digital maturity of Ecuadorian SMEs and which tools best predict e-commerce engagement. The analysis draws on the National Digital Skills Survey (ENHD, Encuesta Nacional de Habilidades Digitales), administered by Ecuador’s Ministry of Telecommunications (MINTEL), covering 847 SMEs in 2021. A ten-indicator Digital Adoption Index (DAI) is related to the ENHD maturity score through least squares regression with robust standard errors, and a binary logit model with multicollinearity diagnostics identifies the tools that predict e-commerce adoption. The DAI explains over half of the variance in digital maturity, robust to firm-size and sector controls. Website presence exerts the largest marginal effect on e-commerce adoption, followed by cloud services. Top adopters score twice as high as non-adopters, consistent with cumulative advantage. Policy implications include subsidised digital-foundations bundles for laggard micro-enterprises.