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Retrieving Seasonal Disaster Records from Early-19th-Century Diaries

Author

Listed:
  • Nagai Shin

    (Research Institute for Global Change, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, 3173-25 Showa-machi, Kanazawa-ku, Yokohama 236-0001, Japan)

  • Taku M. Saitoh

    (Center for Environmental and Societal Sustainability, Gifu University, Gifu 501-1193, Japan)

  • Chifuyu Katsumata

    (Research Institute for Global Change, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, 3173-25 Showa-machi, Kanazawa-ku, Yokohama 236-0001, Japan)

Abstract

Disaster records retrieved from historical diaries are valuable for examining past seasonal variations in disaster occurrence. We extracted 154 fire and 103 flood records between 1807 and 1838 from the Zayu-Nichiroku (the Kakuson Diaries), written by KANEKO Kakuson in Kanazawa, Japan. We analyzed the seasonal probability of these events using the Poisson distribution. The probability of fire peaked between March and June, while that of floods was highest in June, July, and September. These trends align well with the current climate in Kanazawa, where low humidity and strong winds elevate fire risk, while prolonged rainfall and localized heavy precipitation during the rainy and typhoon seasons increase flood risk. However, extracting disaster records from historical diaries involves uncertainties stemming from omitted entries, the loss of archival material, ambiguous descriptions, unique local recording bias, and short-term missing records. To reduce these uncertainties, we should employ an interdisciplinary approach utilizing multiple historical sources and probabilistic analyses of disaster occurrence.

Suggested Citation

  • Nagai Shin & Taku M. Saitoh & Chifuyu Katsumata, 2026. "Retrieving Seasonal Disaster Records from Early-19th-Century Diaries," Data, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-11, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jdataj:v:11:y:2026:i:4:p:80-:d:1916045
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