Transition from Fossil Fuels to Renewables: A Comparative Analysis Between Energy-Rich and Energy-Poor Economies

The transition from non-renewable to renewable energy sources has emerged as a pressing global issue, driven by concerns over climate change, resource depletion, and the need for sustainable development. This study compares Canada, an energy-rich nation, and Bangladesh, an energy-scarce country, to understand the structural, institutional, and market factors driving their respective renewable energy transitions. Using univariate time-series models (ARIMA, ETS, and Prophet) for energy demand forecasting and extensive literature-based policy evaluation, the paper examines trends in energy production, consumption, and trade from 1990 to 2024. Our analysis indicates that Canada’s vast reserves of both renewable and non-renewable energy sources, its diversified energy portfolio, and carbon-pricing framework support a stable decarbonization pathway, with renewables projected to account for more than 20% of total supply by 2030. However, regional disparities and political resistance from the established energy sector continue to delay transition outcomes. On the other hand, Bangladesh has limited renewable and non-renewable energy sources, with its primary energy resource being natural gas reserves. Consequently, its heavy reliance on imports (over 75% of primary energy) and institutional bottlenecks expose its energy system to commodity-price volatility, undermining energy security and slowing renewable investment. Despite these challenges, targeted solar programs and concessional financing have modestly increased the penetration of renewable energy. The analysis highlights that commodity market fluctuations, technological innovations (such as smart grids and energy storage), and market-based policy instruments critically shape each country’s transition trajectory. A coordinated policy linking market stabilization, innovation investment, and social inclusion is essential for achieving a just and secure low-carbon transition in both countries.