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Safe Haven Re-Evaluated: Technological Disruption and the Collapse of Natural and Synthetic (Manmade) Diamond Value

Author

Listed:
  • Ingo Wolf

    (Osmium-Institut zur Inverkehrbringung und Zertifizierung von Osmium GmbH, Kemmelallee 6, 82418 Murnau am Staffelsee, Germany)

  • Martin Užík

    (Berlin School of Economics and Law, Badensche Straße 52, 10825 Berlin, Germany)

Abstract

Technological advances in laboratory-grown diamonds (LGDs) have eroded the scarcity premium of natural diamonds, raising the question of whether diamonds still function as a safe haven. At the same time, crystalline osmium has become investable for the first time, as crystallization technology enables safe storage, certification, and global trading. Using monthly data from 2017–2025, we form diversified portfolios with and without diamonds and with and without osmium, as well as two-asset combinations with the MSCI World. The results show that diamonds no longer provide reliable stability, while osmium consistently contributes to reducing volatility. For portfolio investors, the key lesson is that traditional safe-haven roles can change; diamonds no longer offer robust protection, whereas crystalline osmium acts as a stabilizing component. These findings illustrate the contrasting effects of technological change: substitution and loss of value for diamonds, usability and stabilization for osmium.

Suggested Citation

  • Ingo Wolf & Martin Užík, 2025. "Safe Haven Re-Evaluated: Technological Disruption and the Collapse of Natural and Synthetic (Manmade) Diamond Value," Commodities, MDPI, vol. 4(4), pages 1-21, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jcommo:v:4:y:2025:i:4:p:25-:d:1772813
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    References listed on IDEAS

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