Optimal Investment Strategy for Off-Grid Offshore Wind Hydrogen Production: Hybrid and Standalone PEM Electrolyzer Configuration Comparison

Developing far-offshore wind power integrated with hydrogen production represents a critical pathway for China’s energy decarbonization. However, the investment prospects of off-grid offshore wind-to-hydrogen projects remain highly uncertain due to volatile technology costs and hydrogen prices, complicating the evaluation of project value and optimal timing. To address the oversimplified treatment of electrolyzer operation and the limited consideration of alkaline electrolyzers in the existing studies, this paper proposes an integrated assessment framework that combines time-series operational simulation with real options analysis. A detailed dynamic model of an alkaline (ALK)–proton exchange membrane (PEM) hybrid configuration is developed to simulate the coordinated hydrogen production under fluctuating wind power. Technical learning effects and stochastic hydrogen price processes are incorporated, and the least-squares Monte Carlo method is applied to determine the optimal investment strategies. A case study of a planned far-offshore wind farm in Guangdong indicates that, compared with a standalone PEM configuration, the hybrid configuration reduces the levelized hydrogen cost by about 15%, increases the investment value by up to 17 times under slow technological progress, and brings forward the optimal investment year by five years, from 2039 to 2034. Sensitivity analysis shows that expected hydrogen prices and discount rates dominate the investment outcomes.