The Energy Transition in Colombia: Government Projections and Realistic Scenarios

Energy transition is crucial for climate change mitigation and Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), and has been a key government focus in Colombia since 2022, which must carefully consider its energy roadmap. This study evaluates three potential scenarios for achieving nearly 100% renewable energy by 2035: replacing fossil fuels with biofuels, using hydrogen for transport and industrial heat, and relying entirely on renewable electricity. This paper discusses these scenarios’ technical, economic, and social challenges, including the need for substantial investments in renewable energy technologies and energy storage systems to replace fossil fuels. The discussion highlights the importance of balancing energy security, environmental concerns, and economic growth while addressing social priorities such as poverty eradication and access to healthcare and education. The results show that while the Colombian government’s energy transition goals are commendable, a rapid energy transition requires 4 to 8 times the government’s projected 34 billion USD investment, making it economically unfeasible. Notably, focusing on wind, photovoltaic, and green hydrogen systems, which need storage, is too costly. Furthermore, replacing fossil fuels in transport is impractical, though increasing biofuel production could partially substitute fossil fuels. Less energy-intensive alternatives like trains and waterway transport should be considered to reduce energy demand and carbon footprint.