Modeling the Impacts of Climate Change on Malaria Distribution in Ethiopia: The Case of Arba Minch Town and Surrounding Areas

This study presents the relationship between climate variables and malaria outbreaks and forecasts the future malaria incidence in Arba Minch Town and its surrounding areas. High-resolution gridded climate data (~4 km × 4 km) covering the period 1981 to 2020 was obtained from the Ethiopian Meteorological Institute. Additionally, Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) model simulations under two shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5) were used to analyze future climate patterns. Malaria case data were obtained from local health centers located in Arba Minch town and surrounding woredas. Malaria projections were simulated using the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMAX) model. Climate projections indicate a significant rise in mean temperature by the end of 21st century, increasing by 2.9 °C under SSP2-4.5 and 3.48 °C under SSP5-8.5. Average monthly rainfall during the baseline period (70.53 mm) is expected to increase to 94.18 mm and 86.09 mm under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, respectively. Malaria case distribution during the baseline period (2005–2017) ranged from 79 to 552 cases per month, while future projections suggest that cases will increase by approximately 600 in the near-term and up to more than 1000 cases by the end of the century. The SARIMAX model effectively captured seasonal variations and short-term fluctuations demonstrating a strong forecasting performance. The model generally indicated that wetter conditions and moderate temperatures will favor mosquito breeding and intensify malaria transmission.