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Approaches to Modeling Selected Macroeconomic Indicators

Author

Listed:
  • Astafieva Ekaterina

    (RANEPA)

  • Drobyshevsky Sergey

    (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy)

  • Idrisov Georgy

    (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy)

  • Kaukin Andrey

    (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy)

  • Zyamalov Vadim

    (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy)

  • Miller Evgenia

    (RANEPA)

  • Pavlov Pavel

    (RANEPA)

  • Sinelnikov-Murylev Sergey

    (VAVT)

  • Turuntseva Marina

    (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy)

Abstract

The publication contains three papers authored by the Gaidar Institute’s leading researchers based on the studies conducted by the Institute in 2018. In the first paper, a modification of Russia’s GDP growth rate decomposition methodology is suggested, along with estimates of the indicators of structural unemployment and total factor productivity calculated for the Russian economy. It also offers an analysis of the structural, foreign trade, and cyclical components of the estimated GDP growth rate under several macroeconomic scenarios for 2019–2024. The second paper assesses the economic potential of alternative sources of growth, in particular informal institutions – the social and cultural norms that have evolved in the Russian regions, including various types of social capital and entrepreneurial culture. The third paper attempts to identify the effects on the quality of socioeconomic forecasts derived on the basis of a massive volume of data of the recent alterations in the methodology applied by Rosstat in its calculations of industrial production and industrial producer price indices that translated into changes in the structure of data used in forecasting.

Suggested Citation

  • Astafieva Ekaterina & Drobyshevsky Sergey & Idrisov Georgy & Kaukin Andrey & Zyamalov Vadim & Miller Evgenia & Pavlov Pavel & Sinelnikov-Murylev Sergey & Turuntseva Marina, 2019. "Approaches to Modeling Selected Macroeconomic Indicators," Research Paper Series, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, issue 179P, pages 307-307.
  • Handle: RePEc:gai:rpaper:rpaper-2019-179p-994
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Russian economy; modelling; macroeconomic indicators;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - General
    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • O43 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Institutions and Growth
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes

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