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The Aggregate Opinion Of Several Experts In The Fuzzy And Pert Methodologies

Author

Listed:
  • Cruz Rambaud, Salvador
  • García Pérez, José

    (University of Almería,)

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to determine a beta distribution of the first type, when a group of experts coincide in the minimum and the maximum values of a random variable (times, in the case of tasks; cash-flows, in the case of investments, etc.), but they disagree with the more likely values. For this purpose, after studying the main parameters of the PERT methodology, we define the bet value (which we identify with the mean) and we deduce its expression by means of the confidence that the expert has in the modal value given by himself. A variation of this approach rises when several experts give their opinion on the modal values and we define the distrust degree as the variance of the values contributed by themselves. This procedure is an alternative method to the fuzzy approach.

Suggested Citation

  • Cruz Rambaud, Salvador & García Pérez, José, 2001. "The Aggregate Opinion Of Several Experts In The Fuzzy And Pert Methodologies," Fuzzy Economic Review, International Association for Fuzzy-set Management and Economy (SIGEF), vol. 0(2), pages 23-49, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:fzy:fuzeco:v:vi:y:2001:i:2:p:23-49
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    Cited by:

    1. Catalina García & José Pérez & Salvador Rambaud, 2010. "Proposal of a new distribution in PERT methodology," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 181(1), pages 515-538, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Beta distribution; expert; PERT; bet value; confidence; distrust; fuzzy.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C40 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - General
    • C43 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Index Numbers and Aggregation

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