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Modeling Naïve Causality In Everyday Reasonig With Fuzzy Logic

Author

Listed:
  • Luca Iandoli

    (Department of Industrial Engineering, University of Naples Federico II, Piazzale Tecchio 80, 80125 Naples (Italy)
    Stevens Institute of Technology, USA)

  • Cristina Ponsiglione

    (Department of Industrial Engineering, University of Naples Federico II, Piazzale Tecchio 80, 80125 Naples (Italy))

  • Giuseppe Zollo

    (Department of Industrial Engineering, University of Naples Federico II, Piazzale Tecchio 80, 80125 Naples (Italy))

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to present a new approach to the representation and elaboration of fuzzy causal reasoning. The proposed approach is based on some results obtained by several studies on causal explanation in the field of cognitive sciences. Drawing form such results, we present a fuzzy linguistic inference called generalized equivalence that permits to represent causal relationships contained in causal linguistic explanations though fuzzy relationships between antecedents and consequents. The generalized equivalence expresses the uncertainty of the causal link in an approximate way. The proposed model can be used to represent verbal explanation containing fuzzy evaluations of variables and of the relationships among them, such as in the statementusually bad weather causes a remarkable increase in car accidents, where usually, bad weather and remarkable increase are fuzzy constructs. The generalized equivalence can be applied to fuzzy causal maps to represent the intensity of causal relationships between fuzzy concepts.

Suggested Citation

  • Luca Iandoli & Cristina Ponsiglione & Giuseppe Zollo, 2016. "Modeling Naïve Causality In Everyday Reasonig With Fuzzy Logic," Fuzzy Economic Review, International Association for Fuzzy-set Management and Economy (SIGEF), vol. 21(1), pages 53-71, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:fzy:fuzeco:v:21:y:2016:i:1:p:53-71
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    Keywords

    approximate reasoning; explanation; causal reasoning; fuzzy connectives; fuzzy causal maps.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • Q40 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - General
    • C49 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Other

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