The Effectiveness of Tax Incentives for Long-Term Savings of Individuals

Encouraging long-term savings among individuals is a complex issue influenced by numerous factors: stock market development, the stability and predictability of economic policy, and the effectiveness of state support systems. Over ten years of operation, Individual Investment Accounts (IIAs) have undergone numerous changes, necessitating careful study of their evolution to identify areas for further improvement. The purpose of this study is to identify factors that influenced the effectiveness of investment tax deductions for IIAs from 2016 to 2024 and to develop proposals for overcoming barriers hindering their development. This objective led to the formulation of the following research tasks: to develop performance indicators (returns) for tax incentives for IIAs and analyze the evolution of IIAs at the national level using these indicators; to develop a regression model for quantitative assessment of factors influencing investment tax deductions across Russian federal subjects; to identify problems hindering individual investment account development and develop strategies to overcome them. The research methods include econometric modeling (panel regression model with fixed effects), ratio analysis, and comparative analysis. The novelty of this study lies in creating a unified toolkit for dynamically assessing the effectiveness of different types of investment tax deductions. The regression model enables quantitative assessment of how the dynamics of financial results from securities transactions, derivatives, repurchase agree- ments, and loss carryforwards to other tax base elements convert into tax deductions claimed by taxpayers. The practical significance of this study lies in the potential application of the proposed tools by the Russian Ministry of Finance to monitor current investment tax deduction results. This would enable accurate identification of which financial market segments drive their increase and to what extent, as well as facilitate stress testing and forecasting of budget revenue shortfalls.