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How Well Can Social Scientists Forecast Societal Change?

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  • Igor Grossmann
  • Christoph Bergmeir
  • Peter Slattery

Abstract

In comprehensive research involving large-scale studies and a major forecasting competition in the social sciences, Igor Grossmann and his teams and co-authors have investigated the question of how well social scientists can predict societal change. They found that, in general, social scientists are not able to forecast better than laypeople or simple statistical benchmarks, and suggest better awareness and training in forecasting for social scientists. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2024

Suggested Citation

  • Igor Grossmann & Christoph Bergmeir & Peter Slattery, 2024. "How Well Can Social Scientists Forecast Societal Change?," Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting, International Institute of Forecasters, issue 72, pages 40-46, Q1.
    • Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2024:i:72:p:40-46
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