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An Extension of Possibility Distributions in Fuzzy Forecasting

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  • Stefan de Kok

Abstract

In the prior two issues of Foresight, we printed a two-part article by Steve Morlidge and Paul Goodwin (MG) on the use of possibility distributions (an application of fuzzy forecasting) for assessing the uncertainty in views about the future. The examples MG provided were based on the assumption that the most appropriate basis of analysis would be a three-point triangular distribution of possibilities for best case, worst case, and most plausible case. In this article, Stefan de Kok uses one of the MG examples to show that there could be value added by accounting for more than these three cases. In geometric terms, the analysis based on a possibility distribution triangle is upgraded to a possibility pyramid. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2022

Suggested Citation

  • Stefan de Kok, 2022. "An Extension of Possibility Distributions in Fuzzy Forecasting," Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting, International Institute of Forecasters, issue 65, pages 17-22, Q2.
    • Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2022:i:65:p:17-22
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