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Uncertainty Is the Human Condition


  • Mike Tremblay


Several commentaries on the "better crystal ball," this being the fifth, clarify the objectives of scenario development, examine the distinction between risk and uncertainty, and lay out important obstacles to the attachment of probabilities to uncertain events. The Scoblic-Tetlock response to the commentaries will be printed in the next issue of Foresight, 2021:Q4. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2021

Suggested Citation

  • Mike Tremblay, 2021. "Uncertainty Is the Human Condition," Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting, International Institute of Forecasters, issue 62, pages 47-49, Q3.
  • Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2021:i:62:p:47-49

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