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Scenarios and Forecasts: Complementary Ways of Anticipating the Future?

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  • Paul Goodwin

Abstract

Goodwin describes the value of scenario planning, which involves visualizing events that may make drastic changes in the status quo and then thinking of ways to deal with them, if they do occur. We can then test possible strategies and try to evaluate their success. This is in contrast to forecasting's common assumption that the past will continue into the future. Goodwin argues these two seemingly opposing approaches might be combined to be useful and beneficial. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2019

Suggested Citation

  • Paul Goodwin, 2019. "Scenarios and Forecasts: Complementary Ways of Anticipating the Future?," Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting, International Institute of Forecasters, issue 52, pages 7-10, Winter.
    • Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2019:i:52:p:7-10
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