How to Respond to a Forecasting Sceptic

Goodwin asserts that several recent, well-publicized events and forecasters' failure to predict them accurately have led to scepticism about forecasts in general. Yet he points out that in many areas, forecasts have been beneficial to the public, for example weather forecast of hurricanes, floods, hot spells, tornadoes, etc. Goodman says that a major cause for scepticism is that many people misunderstand just what a forecast is and what it tries to do. He explains factors like probability distributions, underlying rationales, basic assumptions, and random occurrences that often influence a carefully calculated forecast and points out that people often remember well forecast failures while quickly forgetting or discounting successes. It is too bad that some people have this attitude and he hopes his explanation of the complexities of forecasts will help people understand better their goals and methods. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2018