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A DEFT Approach to Trend-Based Foresight

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  • Adam Gordon

Abstract

Trend projection is a critical element of most forecasting models. Automatic forecasting methods typically glean trends from past data and extrapolate these trends forward, but do so without consideration of the forces that nurture the trend – and that eventually may turn on it. Adam Gordon’s DEFT framework helps you probe behind the trend to identify the underlying Drivers, Enablers, Friction, and Turners. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2010

Suggested Citation

  • Adam Gordon, 2010. "A DEFT Approach to Trend-Based Foresight," Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting, International Institute of Forecasters, issue 17, pages 13-18, Spring.
  • Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2010:i:17:p:13-18
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    1. Kesten C. Green & J. Scott Armstrong, 2004. "Value of Expertise For Forecasting Decisions in Conflicts," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 27/04, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    2. Paul W. Rhode & Koleman S. Strumpf, 2004. "Historical Presidential Betting Markets," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(2), pages 127-141, Spring.
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