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Predicting Recessions: A Regression (Probit) Model Approach

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  • Peter Sephton

Abstract

Forecasting recessions is fraught with difficulties: we never know if we are in recession until long after one has started. This makes it all the more important to try to predict in advance the likelihood of recession, so that businesses can plan accordingly. Peter takes us inside the economist's crystal ball, identifying key indicators of economic recession and how they can be combined into a predictive model. The model forecasts a difficult 2009. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2009

Suggested Citation

  • Peter Sephton, 2009. "Predicting Recessions: A Regression (Probit) Model Approach," Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting, International Institute of Forecasters, issue 12, pages 26-32, Winter.
    • Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2009:i:12:p:26-32
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    Cited by:

    1. Tobias F. Rötheli, 2018. "Should business rely on business cycle forecasting?," Central European Journal of Operations Research, Springer;Slovak Society for Operations Research;Hungarian Operational Research Society;Czech Society for Operations Research;Österr. Gesellschaft für Operations Research (ÖGOR);Slovenian Society Informatika - Section for Operational Research;Croatian Operational Research Society, vol. 26(1), pages 121-133, March.

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