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Can We Obtain Valid Benchmarks from Published Surveys of Forecast Accuracy?

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  • Stephen Kolassa

Abstract

Organizations often seek benchmarks to judge the success of their forecasts. Reliable benchmarks would allow the company or agency to see if it has improved upon industry standards and to evaluate whether investment of additional resources in forecasting would be money well spent. But can the existing benchmark surveys be trusted? "No," says Stephan Kolassa, who has analyzed the surveys and found them seriously deficient. In this article Stephan explains the many problems that plague benchmark surveys and advises that companies should redirect their search from external to internal benchmarks since the latter provide a better representation of the processes and targets the company has in place. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2008

Suggested Citation

  • Stephen Kolassa, 2008. "Can We Obtain Valid Benchmarks from Published Surveys of Forecast Accuracy?," Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting, International Institute of Forecasters, issue 11, pages 6-14, Fall.
  • Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2008:i:11:p:6-14
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    Cited by:

    1. Robert Rieg, 2010. "Do forecasts improve over time?: A case study of the accuracy of sales forecasting at a German car manufacturer," International Journal of Accounting and Information Management, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 18(3), pages 220-236, September.
    2. Emilian Dobrescu, 2014. "Attempting to Quantify the Accuracy of Complex Macroeconomic Forecasts," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 5-21, December.

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