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Use Scaled Errors Instead of Percentage Errors in Forecast Evaluations

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  • Lauge Valentin

Abstract

Lauge Valentin presents a case for abandoning percentage errors when evaluating forecasts and replacing them by scaled errors. He describes how the shift from percentage errors to scaled errors was motivated by his company’s need for an accuracy statistic that would lend itself to benchmarking across product groups. Lauge shows how scaled error measures are used in the LEGO Group for evaluating forecast performance. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2007

Suggested Citation

  • Lauge Valentin, 2007. "Use Scaled Errors Instead of Percentage Errors in Forecast Evaluations," Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting, International Institute of Forecasters, issue 7, pages 17-22, Summer.
    • Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2007:i:7:p:17-22
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    Cited by:

    1. Hill, Arthur V. & Zhang, Weiyong & Burch, Gerald F., 2015. "Forecasting the forecastability quotient for inventory management," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 651-663.
    2. Emilian Dobrescu, 2014. "Attempting to Quantify the Accuracy of Complex Macroeconomic Forecasts," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 5-21, December.
    3. Gorr, Wilpen L., 2009. "Forecast accuracy measures for exception reporting using receiver operating characteristic curves," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 48-61.

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