The Impact of Agricultural Value Added, Forest Areas, Technological Development, Economic Growth, and Energy Use on Carbon Emissions: An Application for Türkiye

Recent environmental degradation, which is identified as the greatest concern worldwide, is driven by carbon emissions, one of the major contributing factors. The global climate change worsened by carbon emissions poses significant risks for both the environment and sustainability. Annual time series data for Türkiye from 1990–2022 have been used to validate the World Bank's World Development Indicators (WDI). Carbon emissions (CO₂ emissions per capita) were determined as the dependent variable in the model, with explanatory variables such as GDP per capita, energy use, patent applications, agricultural value added, and forest area variables being used. The results of the ARDL bound testing indicate the existence of long-term cointegration relationships among the variables in the analysis at the 1% significance level. Long-term findings show that an increase in energy consumption leads to an increase in carbon emissions. Increases in patent applications decrease carbon emissions. Negative relationships are found between carbon emissions and patent applications, as well as forest land. Additionally, increases in per capita income and agricultural value added in the short-term lead to an increase in carbon emissions, deteriorating environmental quality. Improving environmental quality can help reduce CO₂ emissions and energy consumption through technological transformations and efficient energy policies. In addition, promoting green finance within the country can support renewable energy initiatives.