A New Cold War in the Arctic Ocean: The Strategic Moves of Russia, the US, and China

This article examines the increasing geopolitical importance of the Arctic Ocean in the 21st century, where glaciers are melting due to climate change, through the metaphor of a ‘New Cold War’. Once a frozen landscape, the Arctic has become the centre of global power competition, offering access to rich natural resources, strategic sea lanes, and new military fields. The study analyses the strategies of the three main actors in this competition: Russia, the US, and China. Russia is attempting to build an ‘Arctic Fortress’ by increasing its military presence and control over the Northern Sea Route. The US, while pursuing a NATO-centred deterrence policy, faces capability gaps such as an ‘icebreaker deficit.’ China, an external actor, aims to create a long-term sphere of influence through its ‘Polar Silk Road’ initiative, economic investments, and scientific research. This competition is spreading to hybrid warfare arenas such as submarine infrastructure, challenging international law, and weakening cooperation mechanisms like the Arctic Council in the aftermath of the Ukraine War. The article concludes with policy recommendations for reducing tensions and rethinking regional governance by analysing these complex dynamics.