Food Inflation Problem in Türkiye: Fourier Bootstrap ARDL

Food inflation has been one of the important factors in the chronic inflation problem in Türkiye. Despite the decline in global food prices in the last two years, food inflation in Türkiye continued to rise excessively. Therefore, examining food inflation has become important in terms of analyzing the inflation problem in the Turkish economy. Exchange rate shocks and the shift in monetary policy in Türkiye disrupted pricing behavior and caused inflation rates to accelerate. In this study, the effects of possible factors determining food inflation were analyzed using the Fourier Bootstrap ARDL model. According to the research findings, the existence of cointegration between the variables of food consumer price index, food producer price index, food industry production index, dollar exchange rate and policy rate is accepted. Short-term and long-term estimation results imply that the increase in the producer price index of food products and the exchange rate has strong effects on increasing food inflation. In the short term, consumer prices have been positively affected by their lagged values. Decreases in the policy rate had a lagged effect on price levels. Short-term deviations in food inflation are estimated to stabilize in about three months.