Analysing The Relationship Between Oil Prices And Personal Consumption Expenditures: A Fourier Approach

In this study, the existence of the relationship between oil prices and personal consumption expenditures in Turkey between the years 2009-2021 was tested using the Fourier approach. While examining the relationship between crude oil prices and personal consumption expenditures, consumption goods are divided into durable, semi-durable and non-durable goods, since the elasticity of consumption goods is different from each other, as well as personal consumption expenditures. For this purpose, first of all, the stationarity of the variables was tested with the help of the Fourier stationarity test, the difference of the non-stationary series at their levels was taken and it was determined that the difference series were stationary. Then, the Fourier-Shin cointegration test was used to test the existence of a long-run relationship between the variables. The obtained results reveal that there is a long-term relationship between sudden shocks in crude oil prices, semi-durable and non-durable consumption expenditures, but there is no long-term relationship between crude oil prices and durable consumer goods. Another result obtained shows that the uncertainty in crude oil prices is a determining factor in the consumption decisions of consumers, but this determining factor is not valid for all goods groups.