Economic Effects of the 1918 Influenza Pandemic: Implications for a Modern-day Pandemic

The possibility of a worldwide influenza pandemic in the near future is of growing concern for many countries around the globe. Many predictions of the economic and social costs of a modern-day influenza pandemic are based on the effects of the influenza pandemic of 1918. This report begins by providing a brief historical background on the 1918 influenza pandemic, a short-lived, but tragic event that has all but escaped the public's consciousness today. Detailed influenza mortality statistics for cities and states, including those in the Eighth Federal Reserve District, are presented. These data provide insight into mortality differences based on race, income and place of residence. Next, anecdotal evidence on the economic effects of the 1918 influenza are reported using newspaper articles published during the pandemic. There is also a survey of economic research on the subject. The information presented in this report and information provided in two prominent publications on the 1918 influenza pandemic are then used to formulate a list of the likely economic effects of a modern-day influenza pandemic.